Invest in preparedness, not prediction

For those of you who have not read “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb here is a terrific presentation from Maarten Cannaert that provides some of the most interesting quotes from the book.

The book itself is a great read but really makes you stop and think…almost every 5 sentences or so.  It took me about 3 months to read it because I could only digest 3-4 pages at a time and I read it twice.  There are still many points that Taleb makes that I have not really wrapped my head around.

I can tell you that it fundamentally changed my thinking on forecasting.  For 15 years, I had been involved in rolling forecasts which are basically our predictions about the future based on past performance and my knowledge of current events.  Taleb’s point (which is the title of the post) is not that we should throw our hands up and just sit back and wait.  It is more about changing our point of view so that we acknowledge we DO NOT KNOW what is going to happen so the best we can do is spend time preparing for the future.

So enjoy Maarten’s favorite quotes from the book…


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Filed under Complexity, Futuring, Strategy

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